PROTESTAS MASIVAS CONTRA JAPÓN EN CHINA POR LAS ISLAS

Top of the Agenda: Japan-China Relations Sour Over Disputed Islands Massive and at times violent anti-Japan protests (Reuters) across China over the weekend--the worst in decades, according to analysts--have prompted some Japanese firms to temporarily shutter factories in the world's second-largest economy and may threaten bilateral trade between the two nations. The demonstrations mainly focused on Japanese diplomatic missions but also included businesses in at least five cities. The uproar began after Tokyo agreed to purchase a chain of long-disputed islands last week in the East China Sea (BBC), known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan, from a private Japanese owner. The uninhabited but strategically important islands are controlled by Japan, but also claimed by China and Taiwan. Beijing characterized the move as "illegal," but vowed to protect Japanese firms and expatriates. The United States said it will honor its security commitments to Japan, but would not take sides in the unfolding dispute. Analysis "Behind the farce of 'buying' the Diaoyu Islands, Japan has a much bigger plan. Since the United States announced its strategy of returning to Asia, Japan has been acting as 'a pawn of the U.S.' to encircle China. By getting involved in the South China Sea dispute, playing up the 'China maritime threat' and frequently holding large-scale joint military exercises with US forces, Japan, together with other U.S. allies, is trying to contain China's rise, writes Chu Zhaogen in China Daily. "U.S. allies and friends around the South China Sea look to the United States to maintain free trade, safe and secure sea lines of communication, and overall peace and stability in the region. Claimants and nonclaimants to land features and maritime waters in the South China Sea view the U.S. military presence as necessary to allow decision-making free of intimidation. If nations in the South China Sea lose confidence in the United States to serve as the principal regional security guarantor, they could embark on costly and potentially destabilizing arms buildups to compensate or, alternatively, become more accommodating to the demands of a powerful China," writes Bonnie S. Glaser in this CFR Contingency Planning Memo. "So far, though, it is reasonable to expect that cool heads will prevail, if only for the fact that trade between Asia's two largest economies would suffer tremendously should war erupt between them. The assumption, therefore, is that the situation remains manageable and that 'rational' leaders will make the right decision, which is to de-escalate, writes J. Michael Cole for the Diplomat. PACIFIC RIM Burma's Suu Kyi Embarks on U.S. Visit Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is scheduled to arrive in Washington, DC on Monday morning to commence her eighteen-day tour of the United States. Suu Kyi is set to meet with Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and President Obama, and will receive the Congressional Gold Medal (VOA). SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA Anti-American Protests Spread Violent protests over a U.S.-made anti-Islam film have continued to spread from the Middle East to other parts of the world, with hundreds of Afghans clashing with police (CNN) in Kabul and police firing tear gas and water cannons (NYT) against demonstrators outside the U.S. embassy in Jakarta on Monday. In Pakistan, one person was killed (VOA) when anti-American protesters tried to storm the U.S. Consulate in Karachi. AFGHANISTAN: In a catastrophic day for NATO (LAT) in Afghanistan, Afghan police shot and killed four U.S. troops Sunday, a U.S. airstrike killed eight Afghan women, and military officials revealed that a Taliban attack on a southern base over the weekend destroyed more than $150 million worth of planes and equipment. PAKISTAN: A nuclear-capable Babur cruise missile that could hit targets deep inside India wassuccessfully test fired today (EconomicTimes), with the military saying the launch had consolidated and strengthened the country's deterrence capability. MIDDLE EAST Netanyahu Presses U.S. on Iran's 'Red Line' On NBC's "Meet the Press," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran would have 90 percent of the material required (Reuters) for a nuclear bomb by mid-2013 and pressed the United States for clarity on a "red line" that Tehran must not cross to avoid military action--something the White House has refused to do. LIBYA: Authorities have arrested fifty people (BBC) allegedly linked with last week's attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, which led to the murder of four U.S. embassy personnel, including Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens, the president of Libya's interim assembly said. AFRICA Two South African Mines Reopen Two mines in South Africa, Aquarius Platinum's Kroondal platinum mine and Xstrata's chrome mine, reopened Monday after labor unrest throughout the region (Reuters) caused them to suspend operations as a precautionary measure last week. Wage discussions between workers and mining company Lonmin are expected to resume today. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO: The World Health Organization warned that an outbreak of the Ebola virus (Al Jazeera) could spread to major towns if not brought under control soon. Thirty-one people have been killed by the virus there in recent weeks. EUROPE Thousands Rally Against Austerity in Spain, Portugal Tens of thousands of Spanish and Portuguese citizens rallied in their respective capitals (BBC) over the weekend to protest austerity measures and high unemployment rates that have taken hold since the onset of the eurozone debt crisis. RUSSIA: Thousands of anti-Putin protesters marched in Moscow (NationalPost) on Saturday, marking the first large-scale demonstration against the Russian president in three months. AMERICAS Shell Suspends Drilling Plans off Alaska Coast The Shell oil company says it will not attempt oil drilling off the Alaska coast (LAT) this year because of difficulties in preparing a barge to handle any underwater spills. Drilling leases for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas are estimated to be worth billions of dollars, but the plans have been beset by legal and technical challenges. VENEZUELA: The main challenger to Hugo Chavez criticized the president (ABCNews) for an emotional speech over the weekend and said he should be weeping instead for the country's numerous crime victims. Henrique Capriles is reported to be rising in opinion polls against Chavez in the final weeks before the October 7 elections and has been emphasizing law-and-order policies. A new CFR report by Patrick Duddy warns Venezuela could be entering a period of violence around the elections, with implications for regional stability. CAMPAIGN 2012 Romney to Go on the Offensive on Immigration GOP nominee Mitt Romney is expected to criticize Obama's record on immigration while promising to"permanently fix" the U.S. immigration system (USAToday) in a speech to the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce today. Fighting back against accusations by the Romney campaign that he is "soft" on China, President Obama will announce a trade enforcement case against Chinese auto industry subsidies (Businessweek) while campaigning in Ohio today. Connect with CFR